Future crude oil prices

Future crude oil prices

Historically, the gold-to-oil ratio averaged around 5, but before the financial crisis, oil prices began to fall. The gold-to-oil ratio reacheFuture crude oil pricesd a peak of 47 in February 206, when the price of West Texas crude oil had fallen below US$27 per barrel. Subsequently, oil prices began to rise, and the ratio of gold to crude oil also tended to normal. The current WTI crude oil price stands above 70 dollars, and the gold-to-oil ratio has fallen below 20.

In the first half of this year, crude oil imports increased by 6%, enabling it to compete with the United States for the title of the world’s largest oil buyer. At the same time, this strong demand, coupled with supply disruptions in Canada and Nigeria, helped boost international crude oil prices by 80% since January. %about. However, in the second half of this year, the pillar that supports the rebound of oil prices from its lowest level in two years may be faltering.

Before the sanctions imposed on Iranian crude oil exports on April 4, most of Iran’s customers were already facing difficulties in purchasing oil supplies from the Persian Gulf country. The uncertainty of whether other OPEC members can increase oil supplies to fill the supply gap is rising. At the same time, the United States did not say whether it will grant exemptions to buyers who may be rejected by the US financial system.

US President Trang announced on Tuesday that he would withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement and restart sanctions on Iran. In theory, the United States will not resume sanctions on Iran’s oil industry within six months, leaving time for customers, traders, and banks to reduce business contacts with Iran in an orderly manner. Also in theory, if importers of Iranian crude oil show a willingness to reduce purchases, the United States will be willing to provide them with exemptions.

Oil prices have fallen successively, erasing the more than 4% increase recorded on September 8 last Thursday. Although U.S. crude oil inventories recorded the largest weekly decline in 999 years, prompting oil prices to rise last Thursday, traders said that the decline in U.S. crude oil imports was due to tropical storm Hermine which delayed the unloading of ships.

At tFuture crude oil priceshe same time, Lukoil, Russia’s second-largest crude oil producer, said recently that the production reduction agreement must be terminated and that Lukoil can restore production within two to months. Carsten Perich, an analyst at Commerzbank, said that due to the huge differences in the positions of OPEC member states, Friday's meeting will be full of many challenges.