Since the middle of the month, the rise of crude oil seems to have begun to shrink significantly. The price of crude oil has been fluctuating within the range of $6-66. However, it can be seen from the trend that although the bottom 6 line has strong support, oil prices have always Unable to successfully break $66. Repeated topping failures, and with thCrude Oil Contract Agreement Documente recent sharp drop in oil prices and close to $6, this time I am afraid it will be difficult for the bulls to boost the crude oil market.
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The monthly report quoted data from second-hand sources that the total crude oil output of OPEC member countries in August was 2.56 million barrels per day, an increase of 280,000 barrels per day from the previous month. As shown in the chart below, oil production in Libya, Iraq and Nigeria has increased, while oil production in Iran, Venezuela, and Algeria has decreased. The report pointed out that Iran's oil output was mainly affected by the Iranian oil sanctions that were implemented in the month, and Venezuela's oil production was also affected by the economic crisis and political turmoil.
The arbitration measures will take effect on the 4th of September. If this action is to not harm other economies, other countries must increase oil production. In response, the US President has repeatedly tweeted that OPEC should increase production to make up for the shortage of Iranian oil supply.
Nevertheless, Trump started the process of dissolving the agreement in October, when he told Congress that the agreement was no longer in the country’s national security interests. At that time, its government began to push Congress and European allies to renegotiate and amend the agreement.
Since April, the price of crude oil has risen wildly like chicken blood. Especially in the past two weeks, the price of crude oil has been almost one step away from the 70 mark. It is no wonder that Saudi Arabia expects crude oil prices to rise above US$00 due to OPEC. Supply cuts and the risk of conflict in the Middle East have risen, and basic market indicators have become increasingly bullish. As the bears withdrew and technical indicators rose, the market's positive view of crude oiCrude Oil Contract Agreement Documentl was very active. The reason for the recent rise in crude oil is that OPEC and Russia are discussing further cooperation and Trump's consideration of extending sanctions on Iran before May 2.
Summary: Last Friday, August 0, the IEA issued its latest monthly report warning that the US sanctions on Iran will have a significant impact on the oil market at the end of this year, and Venezuelan oil production will fall below 0 million barrels per day at the end of the year.
Even so, US sanctions on Iran will still affect Iran. Since the sanctions were launched in August, Iran’s currency has depreciated sharply, bank savings have shrunk, prices have risen sharply, and people’s lives have been affected. Iranian President Rouhani also stated that Iran is under increasing economic pressure. The United Nations International Court of Justice also stated in October that sanctions on Iran’s humanitarian needs may have serious and harmful effects on the health and lives of Iranian individuals. The US sanctions on aircraft parts and components may also endanger the safety of Iranian civil aviation and the lives of its passengers.